# DOJ criminally charges NVIDIA by December 31?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "DOJ criminally charges NVIDIA by December 31?". Yes leads at 5%. $2K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-12T22:48:25Z (13 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Yes | 5% | 5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Justice formally charges, files a criminal complaint against, or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of NVIDIA Corporation or any of its subsidiaries or successors between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A federal criminal complaint, information, or indictment naming NVIDIA Corporation or any of its subsidiaries or successors as a defendant will qualify. Charges filed under seal will qualify only once they are unsealed or publicly announced by the US federal government within this market's timeframe, regardless of when they were originally filed.

Charges under any federal criminal statute will qualify (for example, criminal antitrust violations under the Sherman Act, export-control or sanctions violations, violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), or fraud). Civil enforcement actions, including civil FARA or civil antitrust actions, will not qualify.

A qualifying charge need not result in a conviction. This market will resolve to "Yes" even if the charge is later dismissed, reduced, or resolved through a deferred prosecution agreement, so long as it was filed or announced by the date specified above. Charges solely against individuals, including NVIDIA executives or Alice Huang, investigations, subpoenas, sanctions designations, and administrative export-control penalties will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/doj-criminally-charges-nvidia-by-december-31
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nvidia-criminally-charged-by-doj-by-december-31?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/doj-criminally-charges-nvidia-by-december-31

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.