# Donald Trump # Truth Social posts November 3 - November 10, 2026?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Donald Trump # Truth Social posts November 3 - November 10, 2026?". Before Apr 1, 2027 leads at 52.5%. Next is 200+ at 50.5%. $56K has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 10, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:23:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 10, 2026
- Volume traded: $56K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 52.5% | — | 52.5% | not on both |
| 200+ | 50.5% | 50.5% | — | not on both |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 34% | — | 34% | not on both |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 26% | — | 26% | not on both |
| 160-179 | 10.5% | 10.5% | — | not on both |
| 180-199 | 10.5% | 10.5% | — | not on both |
| 140-159 | 7.7% | 7.7% | — | not on both |
| 120-139 | 6.6% | 6.6% | — | not on both |
| 100-119 | 2.6% | 2.6% | — | not on both |
| 80-99 | 1.3% | 1.3% | — | not on both |
| 60-79 | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |
| 20-39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| 40-59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [truthsocial.com](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/), [MSNBC](https://www.msnbc.com/), [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between November 3, 12:00 PM ET and November 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/donald-trump-truth-social-posts-november-3-november-10-2026
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/donald-trump-of-truth-social-posts-november-3-november-10-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtruthapiblock?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/donald-trump-truth-social-posts-november-3-november-10-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.