# Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida: Method of Victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida: Method of Victory". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 69%. Next is Fight won by KO/TKO? at 58.5%. $38K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 28, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-12T22:49:25Z (12 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 28, 2026
- Volume traded: $38K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 69% | 69% | — | not on both |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 58.5% | 58.5% | — | not on both |
| Ends before Round 3? | 58% | 58% | — | not on both |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 55.5% | 55.5% | — | not on both |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 41% | 41% | — | not on both |
| Donte Johnson by KO/TKO/DQ | 40% | — | 40% | not on both |
| Johnson to win by KO/TKO? | 39.5% | 39.5% | — | not on both |
| Cesar Almeida vs. Donte Johnson | 38.5% | 38.5% | — | not on both |
| Almeida to win by KO/TKO? | 37% | 37% | — | not on both |
| Decision or Draw | 36.5% | 36.5% | — | not on both |
| Fight won by decision? | 36.5% | 36.5% | — | not on both |
| Ends before Round 2? | 33% | 33% | — | not on both |
| Johnson in Round 1 | 32% | 32% | — | not on both |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 30% | 30% | — | not on both |
| Johnson in Round 2 | 29.5% | 29.5% | — | not on both |
| Almeida in Round 1 | 29% | 29% | — | not on both |
| Almeida in Round 2 | 27.5% | 27.5% | — | not on both |
| Cesar Almeida by KO/TKO/DQ | 27% | — | 27% | not on both |
| Almeida in Round 3 | 26.5% | 26.5% | — | not on both |
| Johnson in Round 3 | 26.5% | 26.5% | — | not on both |
| Fight won by submission? | 25% | 25% | — | not on both |
| Donte Johnson by Decision | 17% | — | 17% | not on both |
| Cesar Almeida by Decision | 8.5% | — | 8.5% | not on both |
| Donte Johnson by Submission | 7% | — | 7% | not on both |
| Cesar Almeida by Submission | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |
| Draw/No Contest | 2.5% | — | 2.5% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [ufc.com](https://www.ufc.com/events).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ESPN](https://www.espn.com), [Fox Sports](https://www.foxsports.com), [Paramount+](https://www.paramountplus.com/home/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/donte-johnson-vs-cesar-almeida-method-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ces2-don13-2026-11-14?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxufcmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/donte-johnson-vs-cesar-almeida-method-of-victory

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.