# "Dune: Part Three" Opening Weekend Box Office: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for ""Dune: Part Three" Opening Weekend Box Office". Before Jan 1, 2027 leads at 96%. Next is 130m+ at 31%. $36K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 20, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:02:00Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 20, 2026
- Volume traded: $36K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: culture

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 96% | — | 96% | not on both |
| 130m+ | 31% | 31% | — | not on both |
| 110m-130m | 28% | 28% | — | not on both |
| 90m-110m | 19.5% | 19.5% | — | not on both |
| 70m-90m | 17.5% | 17.5% | — | not on both |
| 70m | 8.5% | 8.5% | — | not on both |
| Before Dec 18, 2026 | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [The Hollywood Reporter](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/), [Variety](https://variety.com/), [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to how much "Dune: Part Three" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If "Dune: Part Three" is not released, or there is no final data available, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/dune-part-three-opening-weekend-box-office
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/dune-part-three-opening-weekend-box-office?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmoviedelaydunept3?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/dune-part-three-opening-weekend-box-office

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.