# ECB Interest Rates: March 2027: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "ECB Interest Rates: March 2027". No Change leads at 51.9%. Next is 25 bps increase at 39.6%. $9K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 18, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:59:00Z (4 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Mar 18, 2027
- Volume traded: $9K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| No Change | 51.9% | 55% |
| 25 bps increase | 39.6% | 42% |
| 50+ bps decrease | 3.6% | 3.8% |
| 50+ bps increase | 3.6% | 3.8% |
| 25 bps decrease | 1.3% | 1.4% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [ecb.europa.eu](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the March 2027 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its March 2027 meeting, scheduled for March 17 and March 18, 2027, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's March 2027 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/ecb-interest-rates-march-2027
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-march-2027?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/ecb-interest-rates-march-2027

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.