# Elon Musk # tweets November 3 - November 10, 2026?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Elon Musk # tweets November 3 - November 10, 2026?". 280-299 leads at 13.1%. Next is 300-319 at 12.4%. $237K has traded across 28 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 10, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:39:00Z (3 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 10, 2026
- Volume traded: $237K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 280-299 | 13.1% | 13.5% |
| 300-319 | 12.4% | 12.8% |
| 260-279 | 11.9% | 12.3% |
| 320-339 | 11.1% | 11.5% |
| 240-259 | 9.7% | 10% |
| 220-239 | 8.1% | 8.4% |
| 340-359 | 7.3% | 7.5% |
| 200-219 | 5.7% | 5.9% |
| 360-379 | 4.8% | 5% |
| 380-399 | 3.9% | 4% |
| 180-199 | 2.9% | 3% |
| 400-419 | 2.3% | 2.4% |
| 420-439 | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| 160-179 | 0.9% | 1% |
| 440-459 | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 140-159 | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 460-479 | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| 480-499 | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| 500-519 | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 100-119 | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 120-139 | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 520-539 | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 540-559 | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 580+ | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 40-59 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 60-79 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 80-99 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 560-579 | 0.1% | 0.2% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [x.com](https://x.com/elonmusk).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 3 12:00 PM ET to November 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/elon-musk-tweets-november-3-november-10-2026
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-november-3-november-10-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/elon-musk-tweets-november-3-november-10-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.