# Elon Musk # tweets October 30 - November 6, 2026?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Elon Musk # tweets October 30 - November 6, 2026?". 300-319 leads at 31.6%. Next is 320-339 at 24.8%. $1.7M has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 6, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:25:00Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 6, 2026
- Volume traded: $1.7M
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 300-319 | 31.6% | 32.5% |
| 320-339 | 24.8% | 25.5% |
| 280-299 | 14.9% | 15.4% |
| 340-359 | 13.1% | 13.5% |
| 360-379 | 6.3% | 6.5% |
| 260-279 | 3.9% | 4% |
| 380-399 | 2.9% | 3% |
| 400-419 | 1% | 1.1% |
| 420-439 | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| 440-459 | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 240-259 | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 460-479 | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 480-499 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 500-519 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 520-539 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 540-559 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 560-579 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 580+ | 0.1% | 0.1% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [x.com](https://x.com/elonmusk).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 30 12:00 PM ET to November 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/elon-musk-tweets-october-30-november-6-2026
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-october-30-november-6-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/elon-musk-tweets-october-30-november-6-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.