# EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by...?". December 31 leads at 75%. Next is November 30 at 50.5%. $5K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T15:08:00Z (6 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $5K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| December 31 | 75% | 75% |
| November 30 | 50.5% | 50.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the national government of any European Union member state officially attributes a qualifying attack on its territory to Russia between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying attack is an act of sabotage or arson, the placement or detonation of an explosive or incendiary device, or a physical attack on persons or property, carried out within the territory of an EU member state on or after September 1, 2026. The following will not qualify: cyber operations; electronic interference such as GPS jamming or spoofing; espionage, surveillance, or reconnaissance; disinformation or influence operations; violations of airspace or territorial waters; drones, missiles, or other munitions launched by Russian armed forces, whether or not they are intercepted; and threats or plots that were not carried out.

A qualifying attribution is a public statement by an authorized representative of the relevant country acting in an official capacity stating that the attack was carried out, ordered, or directed by the Russian state, including its armed forces or intelligence services, or by persons acting on their instructions. Criminal charges filed by that state’s prosecutors alleging that the attack was carried out on behalf of the aforementioned Russian state services will also qualify.

Statements describing Russian involvement as suspected, likely, probable, or not ruled out, or stating only that an attack bears the hallmarks of or is consistent with Russian activity, will not qualify. Statements by anonymous or unnamed officials, by governments of other countries, or by EU or NATO institutions will not qualify on their own. Attributions made before market creation, and re-attributions regarding previously attributed attacks, will not qualify.

Once a qualifying attribution is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of any later retraction, Russian denial, or the outcome of legal proceedings.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements and publications from the government of the relevant EU member state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/eu-country-blames-russia-for-new-sabotage-attack-by
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/eu-country-blames-russia-for-new-sabotage-attack-byptptpt-20261027?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/eu-country-blames-russia-for-new-sabotage-attack-by

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.