# European Parliament election winner?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "European Parliament election winner?". EPP leads at 63.3%. Next is S&D at 11%. $7K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 10, 2030.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:06:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jun 10, 2030
- Volume traded: $7K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| EPP | 63.3% | 69% |
| S&D | 11% | 12% |
| Patriots for Europe | 10.1% | 11% |
| The Left | 5.5% | 6% |
| ESN | 2.8% | 3% |
| Greens/EFA | 2.8% | 3% |
| Renew Europe | 2.7% | 3% |
| ECR | 1.8% | 2% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [European Parliament](https://results.elections.europa.eu/en/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/european-parliament-election-winner
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeuparliament?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/european-parliament-election-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.