# Evan Elder vs Samuel Sanches: Method of Victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Evan Elder vs Samuel Sanches: Method of Victory". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 71.5%. Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 61%. $41K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 28, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T20:10:31Z (11 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 28, 2026
- Volume traded: $41K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 71.5% | 71.5% | — | not on both |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 61% | 61% | — | not on both |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 50.5% | 50.5% | — | not on both |
| Evan Elder vs. Samuel Sanches | 47.5% | 47.5% | — | not on both |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 45% | 45% | — | not on both |
| Ends before Round 3? | 44% | 44% | — | not on both |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 44% | 44% | — | not on both |
| Decision or Draw | 43.5% | 43.5% | — | not on both |
| Fight won by decision? | 42.5% | 42.5% | — | not on both |
| Sanches to win by KO/TKO? | 33% | 33% | — | not on both |
| Samuel Sanches by KO/TKO/DQ | 32% | — | 32% | not on both |
| Sanches in Round 1 | 30% | 30% | — | not on both |
| Elder to win by KO/TKO? | 29% | 29% | — | not on both |
| Sanches in Round 2 | 29% | 29% | — | not on both |
| Fight won by submission? | 27.5% | 27.5% | — | not on both |
| Elder in Round 1 | 27% | 27% | — | not on both |
| Elder in Round 2 | 26.5% | 26.5% | — | not on both |
| Elder in Round 3 | 26.5% | 26.5% | — | not on both |
| Sanches in Round 3 | 26.5% | 26.5% | — | not on both |
| Evan Elder by Decision | 26% | — | 26% | not on both |
| Ends before Round 2? | 23% | 23% | — | not on both |
| Samuel Sanches by Decision | 17% | — | 17% | not on both |
| Evan Elder by KO/TKO/DQ | 12% | — | 12% | not on both |
| Evan Elder by Submission | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| Samuel Sanches by Submission | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Draw/No Contest | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [ufc.com](https://www.ufc.com/events).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ESPN](https://www.espn.com), [Fox Sports](https://www.foxsports.com), [Paramount+](https://www.paramountplus.com/home/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/evan-elder-vs-samuel-sanches-method-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-eva1-sam13-2026-11-14?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxufcmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/evan-elder-vs-samuel-sanches-method-of-victory

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.