# Fed Decision in March?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Fed Decision in March?". Fed maintains rate leads at 46.9%. Next is Hike 25bps at 45%. $138K has traded across 5 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 18, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:00:00Z (4 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Mar 18, 2027
- Volume traded: $138K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Fed maintains rate | 46.9% | 47.5% | 50% | 2.5 pts |
| Hike 25bps | 45% | 46.5% | 47% | 0.5 pts |
| Cut 25bps | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5% | 0.4 pts |
| Hike >25bps | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3% | 1.3 pts |
| Cut >25bps | 1% | 1.3% | 1% | 0.3 pts |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [federalreserve.gov](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov).

## Settlement rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2027 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 16-17, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/fed-decision-in-march-1
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-march-2027?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/fed-decision-in-march-1

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.