# FIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in December 2026: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "FIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in December 2026". Hikaru Nakamura leads at 98%. Next is Magnus Carlsen at 98%. $2K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 7, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T04:28:41Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 7, 2027
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Hikaru Nakamura | 98% | 98% |
| Magnus Carlsen | 98% | 98% |
| Fabiano Caruana | 96% | 96% |
| Javokhir Sindarov | 60% | 60% |
| Hans Moke Niemann | 47.5% | 47.5% |
| Viswanathan Anand | 47.5% | 47.5% |
| Gukesh Dommaraju | 47% | 47% |
| Jorden Van Foreest | 47% | 47% |
| Leinier Domínguez Pérez | 47% | 47% |
| Liren Ding | 47% | 47% |
| Alireza Firouzja | 40% | 40% |
| Nodirbek Abdusattorov | 22% | 22% |
| Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa | 9% | 9% |
| Wei Yi | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Wesley So | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Anish Giri | 6% | 6% |
| Vincent Keymer | 6% | 6% |
| Arjun Erigaisi | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| Jan-Krzysztof Duda | 3% | 3% |
| Le Quang Liem | 3% | 3% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [FIDE World Top Players](https://ratings.fide.com/top_lists.phtml?list=open).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/fide-world-top-chess-players-top-5-rated-in-december-2026
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxchessfideratingtop?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/fide-world-top-chess-players-top-5-rated-in-december-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.