# Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs Tahir Abdullayev: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs Tahir Abdullayev". Jake Matthews leads at 66.2%. Next is Abdullayev in Round 1 at 50%. $3K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 23, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T22:43:41Z (12 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 23, 2026
- Volume traded: $3K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Jake Matthews | 66.2% | 65% | 68% | 3.0 pts |
| Abdullayev in Round 1 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Abdullayev in Round 2 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Abdullayev in Round 3 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Abdullayev to win by KO/TKO? | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Decision or Draw | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Ends before Round 2? | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Ends before Round 3? | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Fight won by decision? | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Fight won by submission? | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Matthews in Round 1 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Matthews in Round 2 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Matthews in Round 3 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Matthews to win by KO/TKO? | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Tahir Abdullayev | 35% | — | 35% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [ufc.com](https://www.ufc.com/events).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ESPN](https://www.espn.com), [DAZN](https://www.dazn.com/en-US), [Tapology](https://www.tapology.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/fight-night-jake-matthews-vs-tahir-abdullayev
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-jak-tabdul-2026-11-21?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxufcfight?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/fight-night-jake-matthews-vs-tahir-abdullayev

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.