# Fils vs Machac: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Fils vs Machac". Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 22.5 leads at 97.6%. Next is Fils at 87.7%. $77K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 18, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:00:00Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 18, 2026
- Volume traded: $77K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 22.5 | 97.6% | 97.6% | — | not on both |
| Fils | 87.7% | 87.5% | 88% | 0.5 pts |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 22.5 | 77.5% | 77.5% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 22.5 | 71.5% | 71.5% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 22.5 | 69.5% | 69.5% | — | not on both |
| Completed Match | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 22.5 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 22.5 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 22.5 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 22.5 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 22.5 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 22.5 | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 22.5 | 36.5% | 36.5% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 22.5 | 34.5% | 34.5% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 22.5 | 28.5% | 28.5% | — | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 22.5 | 28% | 28% | — | not on both |
| Tomas Machac | 12% | — | 12% | not on both |
| Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Fils vs Tomas Machac Match O/U 22.5 | 1.6% | 1.6% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [atptour.com](https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ATP](https://www.atptour.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/fils-vs-machac
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-fils-machac-2026-11-04?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxatpmatch?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/fils-vs-machac

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.