# Flávio Bolsonaro arrested before 2027?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Flávio Bolsonaro arrested before 2027?". Yes leads at 2.9%. $30K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:04:00Z (7 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $30K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Yes | 2.9% | 2.9% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge's decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as he is held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:

- Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
- Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
- Being formally booked or processed following detention
- Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
- Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with his attorney
- Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention:

- An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
- Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
- Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/flávio-bolsonaro-arrested-before-2027
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/flavio-bolsonaro-arrested-before-2027?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/flávio-bolsonaro-arrested-before-2027

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.