# Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil by...?: prediction market odds

> Final prediction market prices for "Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil by...?". $199K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jan 1, 2027.

- Status: Trading has ended; prices are final
- Prices updated: unknown
- Closed: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $199K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "return" is defined as Flávio Bolsonaro physically entering the terrestrial territory of Brazil. Whether or not Bolsonaro enters Brazilian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

If it is confirmed that Flávio Bolsonaro was present in the terrestrial territory of Brazil at the time of market creation, this market will resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/flávio-bolsonaro-returns-to-brazil-by
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/flavio-bolsonaro-returns-to-brazil-by?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/flávio-bolsonaro-returns-to-brazil-by

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.