# Florida Governor margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Florida Governor margin of victory". Donalds, 1+ pts leads at 66%. Next is Donalds, 2+ pts at 59%. $399K has traded across 40 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-10-31T20:59:00Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $399K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Donalds, 1+ pts | 66% | — | 66% | not on both |
| Donalds, 2+ pts | 59% | — | 59% | not on both |
| Donalds, 3+ pts | 51% | — | 51% | not on both |
| Donalds, 4+ pts | 38% | — | 38% | not on both |
| Donalds, 5+ pts | 31% | — | 31% | not on both |
| Jolly, 1+ pts | 27% | — | 27% | not on both |
| Donalds 0-3% | 24.5% | 24.5% | — | not on both |
| Donalds 3-6% | 24.5% | 24.5% | — | not on both |
| Donalds, 6+ pts | 24% | — | 24% | not on both |
| Jolly 0-3% | 22.4% | 22.4% | — | not on both |
| Jolly, 2+ pts | 19% | — | 19% | not on both |
| Byron Donalds, 2-4% | 18% | — | 18% | not on both |
| Donalds, 7+ pts | 18% | — | 18% | not on both |
| David Jolly, 0-2% | 16% | — | 16% | not on both |
| Donalds, 8+ pts | 16% | — | 16% | not on both |
| Byron Donalds, 0-2% | 14% | — | 14% | not on both |
| Byron Donalds, 4-6% | 14% | — | 14% | not on both |
| Donalds, 9+ pts | 14% | — | 14% | not on both |
| Jolly, 3+ pts | 13% | — | 13% | not on both |
| David Jolly, 2-4% | 11% | — | 11% | not on both |
| Donalds 6-9% | 10.6% | 10.6% | — | not on both |
| David Jolly, ≥4% | 10% | — | 10% | not on both |
| Jolly, 4+ pts | 10% | — | 10% | not on both |
| Byron Donalds, 6-8% | 9% | — | 9% | not on both |
| Donalds, 12+ pts | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| Jolly, 5+ pts | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| Byron Donalds, 10-12% | 7% | — | 7% | not on both |
| Donalds 9-12% | 6.8% | 6.8% | — | not on both |
| Donalds, 15+ pts | 6.2% | — | 6.2% | not on both |
| Jolly, 6+ pts | 6.1% | — | 6.1% | not on both |
| Byron Donalds, 8-10% | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Jolly 6%+ | 3.5% | 3.5% | — | not on both |
| Jolly 3-6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | — | not on both |
| Donalds 12-15% | 3.1% | 3.1% | — | not on both |
| Byron Donalds, ≥16% | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Byron Donalds, 12-14% | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Byron Donalds, 14-16% | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Donalds 15-18% | 2.5% | 2.5% | — | not on both |
| Donalds, 18+ pts | 1.1% | — | 1.1% | not on both |
| Donalds 18%+ | 0.9% | 0.9% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Florida Division of Elections](https://dos.fl.gov/elections).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/florida-governor-margin-of-victory-1
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/florida-governor-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgeneralmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/florida-governor-margin-of-victory-1

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.