# Florida Governor: margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Florida Governor: margin of victory". Donalds 0-3% leads at 98.8%. Next is Byron Donalds, 0-2% at 96%. $1.4M has traded across 38 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:07:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $1.4M
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Donalds 0-3% | 98.8% | 98.8% | — | not on both |
| Byron Donalds, 0-2% | 96% | — | 96% | not on both |
| Donalds, 0.5+ pts | 95.9% | — | 95.9% | not on both |
| Donalds, 1+ pts | 91% | — | 91% | not on both |
| Byron Donalds, 2-4% | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Donalds, 1.5+ pts | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Donalds, 2+ pts | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Donalds, 2.5+ pts | 1.5% | — | 1.5% | not on both |
| Donalds 3-6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | — | not on both |
| Byron Donalds, ≥16% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Byron Donalds, 4-6% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Byron Donalds, 6-8% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Byron Donalds, 8-10% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Byron Donalds, 10-12% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Byron Donalds, 12-14% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Byron Donalds, 14-16% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Donalds, 3+ pts | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Donalds, 4+ pts | 0.7% | — | 0.7% | not on both |
| Donalds, 4.5+ pts | 0.6% | — | 0.6% | not on both |
| Donalds 6-9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| Jolly 0-3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| Donalds 9-12% | 0.4% | 0.4% | — | not on both |
| Donalds 12-15% | 0.4% | 0.4% | — | not on both |
| Donalds, 3.5+ pts | 0.4% | — | 0.4% | not on both |
| Donalds, 5+ pts | 0.3% | — | 0.3% | not on both |
| Donalds, 6+ pts | 0.2% | — | 0.2% | not on both |
| Donalds, 8+ pts | 0.2% | — | 0.2% | not on both |
| Donalds, 9+ pts | 0.2% | — | 0.2% | not on both |
| Donalds, 10+ pts | 0.2% | — | 0.2% | not on both |
| Donalds, 12+ pts | 0.2% | — | 0.2% | not on both |
| Donalds, 15+ pts | 0.2% | — | 0.2% | not on both |
| Donalds, 18+ pts | 0.2% | — | 0.2% | not on both |
| Donalds 18%+ | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |
| Donalds 15-18% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Donalds, 5.5+ pts | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | not on both |
| Donalds, 7+ pts | 0.1% | — | 0.1% | not on both |
| Jolly 6%+ | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Jolly 3-6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Florida Division of Elections](https://dos.fl.gov/elections).

## Settlement rules

Kalshi event status: open

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/florida-governor-margin-of-victory-2
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/florida-governor-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgeneralmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/florida-governor-margin-of-victory-2

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.