# Florida's 11th District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Florida's 11th District margin of victory". Strada, 4+ pts leads at 97.9%. Next is Republican 6-9% at 97.5%. $46K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T15:18:00Z (5 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $46K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Strada, 4+ pts | 97.9% | — | 97.9% | not on both |
| Republican 6-9% | 97.5% | 97.5% | — | not on both |
| Strada, 1+ pts | 95% | — | 95% | not on both |
| Strada, 7+ pts | 49% | — | 49% | not on both |
| Republican 3-6% | 2% | 2% | — | not on both |
| Republican 12-15% | 2% | 2% | — | not on both |
| Republican 15-18% | 1.7% | 1.7% | — | not on both |
| Republican 0-3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 3%+ | 1.4% | 1.4% | — | not on both |
| Republican 0-3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | — | not on both |
| Republican 9-12% | 1.2% | 1.2% | — | not on both |
| Republican 21%+ | 1.2% | 1.2% | — | not on both |
| Strada, 10+ pts | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Strada, 13+ pts | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Strada, 16+ pts | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Strada, 19+ pts | 0.9% | — | 0.9% | not on both |
| Republican 18-21% | 0.9% | 0.9% | — | not on both |
| Strada, 22+ pts | 0.2% | — | 0.2% | not on both |
| Strada, 25+ pts | 0.2% | — | 0.2% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Florida Division of Elections](https://dos.fl.gov/elections).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/floridas-11th-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/fl-11-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/floridas-11th-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.