# Florida's 17th District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Florida's 17th District margin of victory". Steube, 7+ pts leads at 99%. Next is Steube, 10+ pts at 99%. $37K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:08:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $37K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Steube, 7+ pts | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Steube, 10+ pts | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Steube, 1+ pts | 98.5% | — | 98.5% | not on both |
| Steube, 4+ pts | 98.1% | — | 98.1% | not on both |
| Steube, 13+ pts | 98% | — | 98% | not on both |
| Steube, 19+ pts | 90% | — | 90% | not on both |
| Republican 15-20% | 67.3% | 67.3% | — | not on both |
| Steube, 16+ pts | 53% | — | 53% | not on both |
| Steube, 22+ pts | 49.5% | — | 49.5% | not on both |
| Steube, 28+ pts | 39.5% | — | 39.5% | not on both |
| Steube, 31+ pts | 35% | — | 35% | not on both |
| Republican 25-30% | 17.5% | 17.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 10-15% | 14.1% | 14.1% | — | not on both |
| Steube, 25+ pts | 11% | — | 11% | not on both |
| Republican 20-25% | 7.5% | 7.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 0-5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | — | not on both |
| Republican 5-10% | 0.8% | 0.8% | — | not on both |
| Democrat Wins | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 30%+ | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Florida Division of Elections](https://dos.fl.gov/elections).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/floridas-17th-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/fl-17-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/floridas-17th-district-margin-of-victory

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.