# Florida's 5th District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Florida's 5th District margin of victory". Republican 10-15% leads at 99.5%. Next is Rutherford, 5+ pts at 98.9%. $25K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:06:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $25K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Republican 10-15% | 99.5% | 99.5% | — | not on both |
| Rutherford, 5+ pts | 98.9% | — | 98.9% | not on both |
| Rutherford, 8+ pts | 98.8% | — | 98.8% | not on both |
| Rutherford, 11+ pts | 55% | — | 55% | not on both |
| Rutherford, 17+ pts | 44% | — | 44% | not on both |
| Rutherford, 20+ pts | 35% | — | 35% | not on both |
| Rutherford, 26+ pts | 32% | — | 32% | not on both |
| Rutherford, 23+ pts | 12% | — | 12% | not on both |
| Rutherford, 29+ pts | 5.8% | — | 5.8% | not on both |
| Rutherford, 14+ pts | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Republican 15-20% | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Republican 5-10% | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| Democrat Wins | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Republican 0-5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Republican 20-25% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Republican 25-30% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Republican 30%+ | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Florida Division of Elections](https://dos.fl.gov/elections).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/floridas-5th-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/fl-05-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/floridas-5th-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.