# French Presidential Election: Candidate with most signatures from elected officials?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "French Presidential Election: Candidate with most signatures from elected officials?". Bruno Retailleau leads at 23.7%. Next is David Lisnard at 17%. $7K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 13, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T00:39:00Z (2 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Mar 13, 2027
- Volume traded: $7K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Bruno Retailleau | 23.7% | 35% |
| David Lisnard | 17% | 25% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 15.6% | 23% |
| douard Philippe | 13.6% | 20% |
| Gabriel Attal | 5.2% | 7.7% |
| Dominique de Villepin | 3.7% | 5.5% |
| Fabien Roussel | 3.4% | 5.1% |
| François Ruffin | 3.4% | 5% |
| Marine Tondelier | 3.3% | 4.8% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 3.1% | 4.7% |
| Sarah Knafo | 2.4% | 3.5% |
| François Hollande | 1.8% | 2.7% |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 1.7% | 2.5% |
| Marine Le Pen | 0.7% | 1.1% |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| ric Zemmour | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| François Asselineau | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Jordan Bardella | 0.3% | 0.4% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. To appear on the ballot, candidates must be presented by at least 500 eligible elected officials (“parrainages”), whose presentations are validated and published by the French Constitutional Council. The deadline for submitting presentations is currently expected to be March 12, 2027, at 6:00 PM local time.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid presentations (parrainages) from elected officials for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election, according to the final tally published by the French Constitutional Council.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve to the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.

If no final tally of valid presentations is published by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/french-presidential-election-candidate-with-most-signatures-from-elected-officials
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/french-presidential-election-candidate-with-most-signatures-from-elected-officials?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/french-presidential-election-candidate-with-most-signatures-from-elected-officials

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.