# French Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "French Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place". Marine Le Pen leads at 45.5%. Next is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 24.5%. $100K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 18, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-07T12:50:03Z (7 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Apr 18, 2027
- Volume traded: $100K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Marine Le Pen | 45.5% | 4% | 85% | — |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 24.5% | 22.5% | 9% | — |
| Christine Lagarde | 21.5% | 21.5% | — | not on both |
| douard Philippe | 15.5% | 25.5% | 1% | — |
| David Lisnard | 13.8% | 19.5% | 3% | — |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 11.3% | 21% | 1% | — |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 8.9% | 8.9% | — | not on both |
| François Hollande | 6.3% | 15% | 1% | — |
| Jordan Bardella | 6% | 5.9% | 9% | — |
| Sarah Knafo | 5.8% | 5.8% | — | not on both |
| François Ruffin | 5.2% | 18% | 1% | — |
| First-round winner | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Gabriel Attal | 4% | 7% | 1% | — |
| Dominique de Villepin | 3.8% | 12% | 1% | — |
| Marine Tondelier | 3.4% | 8.2% | 1% | — |
| Bruno Retailleau | 3% | 6% | 1% | — |
| ric Zemmour | 1.5% | 3% | 1% | — |
| Xavier Bertrand | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Conseil constitutionnel](https://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/), [French Ministry of the Interior](https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/).

## Settlement rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/french-presidential-election-first-round-4th-place
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/french-presidential-election-first-round-4th-place?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfrenchpres1r?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/french-presidential-election-first-round-4th-place

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.