# French Presidential Election First Round: Le Pen Vote Share?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "French Presidential Election First Round: Le Pen Vote Share?". 31-34% leads at 27%. Next is 28% at 22.5%. $11K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 18, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T20:28:41Z (27 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Apr 18, 2027
- Volume traded: $11K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 31-34% | 27% | 27% | — | not on both |
| 28% | 22.5% | 22.5% | — | not on both |
| 34-37% | 22% | 22% | — | not on both |
| 28-31% | 15.5% | 15.5% | — | not on both |
| 37-40% | 12.5% | 12.5% | — | not on both |
| 40%+ | 12.5% | 12.5% | — | not on both |
| First-round winner | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Conseil constitutionnel](https://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/), [French Ministry of the Interior](https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/).

## Settlement rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Marine Le Pen in the first round of this election.

The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/french-presidential-election-first-round-le-pen-vote-share
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/french-presidential-election-first-round-marine-le-pen-vote-share?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfrenchpres1r?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/french-presidential-election-first-round-le-pen-vote-share

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.