# French Presidential Election First Round: # of Candidates on Ballot?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "French Presidential Election First Round: # of Candidates on Ballot?". Marine Le Pen leads at 93%. Next is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 89%. $41K has traded across 37 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 18, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-10T04:25:05Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Apr 18, 2027
- Volume traded: $41K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Marine Le Pen | 93% | — | 93% | not on both |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 89% | — | 89% | not on both |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 86% | — | 86% | not on both |
| First-round winner | 82% | — | 82% | not on both |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 81% | — | 81% | not on both |
| douard Philippe | 74% | — | 74% | not on both |
| ric Zemmour | 74% | — | 74% | not on both |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 68% | — | 68% | not on both |
| Jean Lassalle | 65% | — | 65% | not on both |
| David Lisnard | 51% | — | 51% | not on both |
| Christine Lagarde | 50.5% | — | 50.5% | not on both |
| Xavier Bertrand | 50.5% | — | 50.5% | not on both |
| Natacha Polony | 50% | — | 50% | not on both |
| Teddy Riner | 50% | — | 50% | not on both |
| 13 or more | 42% | 42% | — | not on both |
| Dominique de Villepin | 32% | — | 32% | not on both |
| Bruno Retailleau | 28% | — | 28% | not on both |
| François Hollande | 28% | — | 28% | not on both |
| François Ruffin | 24% | — | 24% | not on both |
| Gabriel Attal | 23% | — | 23% | not on both |
| Marine Tondelier | 20% | — | 20% | not on both |
| 9 | 16% | 16% | — | not on both |
| 11 | 15.5% | 15.5% | — | not on both |
| 8 | 14.5% | 14.5% | — | not on both |
| François Asselineau | 14% | — | 14% | not on both |
| 10 | 13% | 13% | — | not on both |
| Jordan Bardella | 13% | — | 13% | not on both |
| 12 | 12.5% | 12.5% | — | not on both |
| Gérald Darmanin | 10% | — | 10% | not on both |
| Clémentine Autain | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| 7 | 7% | 7% | — | not on both |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 7% | — | 7% | not on both |
| First-round winner | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Jérôme Guedj | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Olivier Faure | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Karim Bouamrane | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| 6 or fewer | 1% | 1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Conseil constitutionnel](https://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/), [French Ministry of the Interior](https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/).

## Settlement rules

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.

This market will resolve according to the number of candidates included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election.

If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on the number of candidates who actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "6 or fewer".

Subsequent withdrawals, deaths, or disqualifications of candidates after the publication of the official candidate list will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/french-presidential-election-first-round-of-candidates-on-ballot
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/french-presidential-election-first-round-of-candidates-on-ballot?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfrenchpres1r?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/french-presidential-election-first-round-of-candidates-on-ballot

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.