# Gemini Carbon released by...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Gemini Carbon released by...?". December 31 leads at 98.4%. Next is November 30 at 97.1%. $206K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 5, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:50:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 5, 2026
- Volume traded: $206K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: ai_tech

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| December 31 | 98.4% | 98.4% |
| November 30 | 97.1% | 97.1% |
| November 15 | 82% | 82% |
| November 13 | 77% | 77% |
| November 11 | 58% | 58% |
| November 9 | 10.5% | 10.5% |
| November 6 | 1% | 1% |
| November 4 | 0.6% | 0.6% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases "Carbon" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by the listed date to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon". Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/gemini-carbon-released-by
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-carbon-released-byptptpt-20261026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/gemini-carbon-released-by

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.