# Gemini Krypton released by...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Gemini Krypton released by...?". January 31 leads at 45%. Next is March 31 at 44%. $1K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-12T09:53:05Z (12 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: ai_tech

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| January 31 | 45% | 45% |
| March 31 | 44% | 44% |
| December 31 | 43% | 43% |
| November 30 | 12% | 12% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

On November 9, 2026, OfficeChai reported that Google was internally testing a Gemini 4 checkpoint codenamed "Krypton," described by testers as an upgrade on Gemini 4 Carbon (https://officechai.com/ai/gemini-4-krypton/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases "Krypton" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Krypton" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Krypton, Gemini 4 Krypton, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Carbon (including an update released under Carbon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by the listed date to be the same model previously codenamed "Krypton". Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Krypton will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/gemini-krypton-released-by
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-krypton-released-byptptpt-20261110?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/gemini-krypton-released-by

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.