# Golden Globe Winner: Best Director: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Winner: Best Director". Christopher Nolan leads at 58.1%. Next is Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo at 23%. $65K has traded across 25 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 10, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:12:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 10, 2028
- Volume traded: $65K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: culture

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Christopher Nolan | 58.1% | 60.5% | 51% | 9.5 pts |
| Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo | 23% | — | 23% | not on both |
| Lance Oppenheim | 12.3% | 12.3% | — | not on both |
| Denis Villeneuve | 12.3% | 15% | 9.5% | 5.5 pts |
| Javier Calvo or Javier Ambrossi | 11.5% | 11.5% | — | not on both |
| Olivia Wilde | 7.4% | 3.9% | 14% | 10.2 pts |
| Paweł Pawlikowski | 6% | — | 6% | not on both |
| Tony Gilroy | 5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Martin McDonagh | 4.2% | 1.5% | 7% | 5.6 pts |
| Alejandro G. Iñárritu | 3.7% | 1.4% | 6% | 4.6 pts |
| Cristian Mungiu | 3.2% | 0.4% | 6% | 5.6 pts |
| Phil Lord or Christopher Miller | 2% | 2% | — | not on both |
| Tie | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Ryusuke Hamaguchi | 0.7% | 0.2% | 2% | 1.8 pts |
| Aaron Sorkin | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Peter Farrelly | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Joel Coen | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| Steven Spielberg | 0.4% | 0.4% | — | not on both |
| David Fincher | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |
| Andrew Haigh | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |
| Jesse Eisenberg | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |
| Jordan Firstman | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |
| Mike Leigh | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |
| Bassam Tariq | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| David O. Russell | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [oscars.org](https://www.oscars.org/).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Golden Globes](https://goldenglobes.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/golden-globe-winner-best-director
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2027-best-director-winner-20260727173335231?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxggwinner?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/golden-globe-winner-best-director

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.