# Golden Globe Winner: Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Winner: Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture". Paul Giamatti leads at 23.1%. Next is Guitarricadelafuente at 15.5%. $85K has traded across 28 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 10, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:17:00Z (2 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 10, 2028
- Volume traded: $85K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: culture

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Paul Giamatti | 23.1% | 31.5% | 24% | 7.5 pts |
| Guitarricadelafuente | 15.5% | 17.6% | 25% | 7.4 pts |
| Andrew Garfield | 10.7% | 22% | 5.5% | 16.5 pts |
| Sam Rockwell | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 0.6 pts |
| Robert Pattinson | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 0.1 pts |
| John Goodman | 5% | 4.9% | 12% | 7.1 pts |
| Skyler Gisondo | 4.9% | — | 7% | not on both |
| John Leguizamo | 4.7% | 4.8% | 7% | 2.3 pts |
| Edward Norton | 4.6% | 4.5% | 7% | 2.5 pts |
| Tie | 3.5% | — | 5% | not on both |
| Guy Pearce | 3% | 0.8% | 7.5% | 6.7 pts |
| Colman Domingo | 2.9% | 0.6% | 7.5% | 6.9 pts |
| Jeremy Strong | 2.8% | 0.5% | 7.5% | 7.0 pts |
| Tom Holland | 1.8% | 2.3% | — | not on both |
| Miles Teller | 1% | 1.3% | — | not on both |
| Steve Buscemi | 0.8% | 1% | — | not on both |
| Adam Scott | 0.6% | 0.7% | — | not on both |
| Daniel Craig | 0.6% | 0.8% | — | not on both |
| Michael Fassbender | 0.6% | 0.8% | — | not on both |
| Channing Tatum | 0.5% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Skyler Gisondo | 0.4% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| Jesse Plemons | 0.3% | 0.4% | — | not on both |
| Riz Ahmed | 0.3% | 0.4% | — | not on both |
| Himesh Patel | 0.2% | 0.3% | — | not on both |
| James Ortiz | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |
| Robert De Niro | 0.2% | 0.3% | — | not on both |
| Charles Melton | 0.1% | 0.2% | — | not on both |
| Travis Scott | 0.1% | 0.2% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [oscars.org](https://www.oscars.org/).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Golden Globes](https://goldenglobes.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/golden-globe-winner-best-supporting-actor-in-a-motion-picture
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2027-best-supporting-actor-winner-1754500000000?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxggwinner?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/golden-globe-winner-best-supporting-actor-in-a-motion-picture

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.