# Golden Globes 2027: Best Director Winner: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globes 2027: Best Director Winner". Christopher Nolan leads at 67.9%. Next is Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo at 43%. $394K has traded across 24 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 11, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T22:48:31Z (8 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 11, 2027
- Volume traded: $394K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: culture

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Christopher Nolan | 67.9% | 64.5% | 58% | — |
| Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo | 43% | 18% | 88% | — |
| Denis Villeneuve | 31.5% | 13% | 21% | — |
| Ryusuke Hamaguchi | 29.3% | 16.1% | 50% | — |
| Olivia Wilde | 27.8% | 18.1% | 1% | — |
| Martin McDonagh | 26.6% | 18.5% | 2% | — |
| Alejandro G. Iñárritu | 16.9% | 16.1% | 1% | — |
| Cristian Mungiu | 14.3% | 16.5% | 20% | — |
| Tony Gilroy | 13.5% | 15.1% | 20.5% | — |
| Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi | 13% | — | 13% | not on both |
| Paweł Pawlikowski | 11.2% | 16.1% | 11% | — |
| Nathan Fielder | 11% | — | 11% | not on both |
| Tie | 1.2% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Andrew Haigh | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Ben Affleck | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Danny Boyle | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| David Fincher | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Janus Metz Pedersen | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Jesse Eisenberg | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Joel Coen | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Mike Leigh | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Na Hong-jin | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Phil Lord & Christopher Miller | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Steven Spielberg | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Golden Globes](https://goldenglobes.com/).

## Settlement rules

The Golden Globe Awards are presented annually by Dick Clark Productions. For the 84th Annual Golden Globe Awards, nominations are scheduled for December 7, 2026, and the ceremony for January 10, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed person who wins Best Director at the 84th Annual Golden Globe Awards.

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated person whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Golden Globe Awards and the official Golden Globes website (https://www.goldenglobes.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/golden-globes-2027-best-director-winner
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/golden-globes-2027-best-director-winner?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxggwinner?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/golden-globes-2027-best-director-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.