# Government shutdown by...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Government shutdown by...?". December 31 leads at 40.5%. Next is Yes at 39%. $81K has traded across 3 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 13, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:59:00Z (2 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 13, 2026
- Volume traded: $81K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| December 31 | 40.5% | 40.5% | — | not on both |
| Yes | 39% | — | 39% | not on both |
| December 12 | 35.5% | 35.5% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Office of Management and Budget](https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/), [United States Office of Personnel Management](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.

A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.

Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.

The following will qualify as a shutdown:

- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")

The following will not qualify as a shutdown:

- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/government-shutdown-by
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/government-shutdown-by?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovtshutdown?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/government-shutdown-by

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.