# GPT Astra 6.1+ released on...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "GPT Astra 6.1+ released on...?". November 12 leads at 43.8%. Next is November 19 at 13.3%. $126K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 12, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-11T09:07:05Z (5 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 12, 2026
- Volume traded: $126K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: ai_tech

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| November 12 | 43.8% | 51.7% |
| November 19 | 13.3% | 15.7% |
| November 26 | 8.4% | 10% |
| No release by November 30 | 7.8% | 9.2% |
| November 16 | 6.5% | 7.7% |
| November 13 | 4.7% | 5.5% |
| November 30 | 3.8% | 4.5% |
| November 14 | 1.9% | 2.3% |
| November 11 | 1.5% | 1.8% |
| November 17 | 1.4% | 1.7% |
| November 20 | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| November 18 | 1.3% | 1.5% |
| November 15 | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| November 24 | 0.6% | 0.8% |
| November 29 | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| November 22 | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| November 27 | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| November 21 | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| November 28 | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| November 23 | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| November 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Astra model (6.1+) is made available to the general public.

A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/gpt-astra-61-released-on
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-astra-6pt1-released-onptptpt?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/gpt-astra-61-released-on

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.