# Grenier vs Bax: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Grenier vs Bax". Grenier leads at 75.7%. Next is Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5 at 69.5%. $7K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T10:48:41Z (10 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 29, 2026
- Volume traded: $7K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Grenier | 75.7% | 75.5% | 76% | 0.5 pts |
| Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5 | 69.5% | 69.5% | — | not on both |
| Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5 | 51.5% | 51.5% | — | not on both |
| Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5 | 51% | 51% | — | not on both |
| Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5 | 51% | 51% | — | not on both |
| Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5 | 43% | 43% | — | not on both |
| Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5 | 32% | 32% | — | not on both |
| Florent Bax | 25% | — | 25% | not on both |
| Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5 | 25% | 25% | — | not on both |
| Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5 | 13.5% | 13.5% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [atptour.com](https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ATP](https://www.atptour.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/grenier-vs-bax
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-grenier-bax-2026-11-15?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxatpchallengermatch?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/grenier-vs-bax

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.