# Hawaii Democratic Senate nominee? (2028): prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Hawaii Democratic Senate nominee? (2028)". Brian Schatz leads at 89.6%. Next is Derek Kawakami at 1.9%. $6K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-12T22:49:25Z (12 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 7, 2028
- Volume traded: $6K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Brian Schatz | 89.6% | 89% |
| Derek Kawakami | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| Ed Case | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| Jill Tokuda | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Josh Green | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Kai Kahele | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Sylvia Luke | 1.6% | 1.6% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Democratic Party of Hawaii](https://www.hawaiidemocrats.org/), [Associated Press](https://apnews.com), [Decision Desk HQ](https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/hawaii-democratic-senate-nominee-2028
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsenatenom?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/hawaii-democratic-senate-nominee-2028

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.