# Headline PCE inflation in October: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Headline PCE inflation in October". Above 0.0% leads at 96.5%. Next is Above 0.1% at 94%. $19K has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 25, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T14:48:40Z (8 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 25, 2026
- Volume traded: $19K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 0.0% | 96.5% | — | 96.5% | not on both |
| Above 0.1% | 94% | — | 94% | not on both |
| Above 0.2% | 86% | — | 86% | not on both |
| 3.7-3.9% | 66.5% | 66.5% | — | not on both |
| 3.4-3.6% | 29% | 29% | — | not on both |
| Above 0.3% | 27% | — | 27% | not on both |
| 4.0-4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | — | not on both |
| Above 0.4% | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Above 0.5% | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |
| 3.1-3.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | — | not on both |
| Above 0.6% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Above 0.7% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| 3.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |
| 4.3%+ | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [ons.gov.uk](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices#publications).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/headline-pce-inflation-in-october
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/october-inflation-uk-annual-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpcehead?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/headline-pce-inflation-in-october

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.