# Hegseth impeached and removed by...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Hegseth impeached and removed by...?". Before Apr 1, 2027 leads at 85%. Next is Before Jul 1, 2027 at 85%. $424K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-10T21:53:05Z (11 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $424K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 85% | — | 85% | not on both |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 85% | — | 85% | not on both |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 69% | — | 69% | not on both |
| Before Nov 21, 2026 | 62% | — | 62% | not on both |
| March 31, 2027 | 33.5% | 33.5% | — | not on both |
| December 31, 2026 | 15% | 15% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives](https://clerk.house.gov/Votes), [the Associated Press](https://apnews.com/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth is impeached and removed from the office of United States Secretary of War (also referred to as the Secretary of Defense) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Impeachment means the U.S. House of Representatives approves one or more articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth. Removal means the U.S. Senate votes to convict Pete Hegseth on one or more articles of impeachment by the two-thirds vote required under the U.S. Constitution, as announced by the presiding officer of the Senate. The conviction will be considered to occur at the time of that announcement. Whip counts, statements of intended votes, and partial vote tallies will not qualify.

This market will resolve to “Yes” upon a qualifying conviction, regardless of when the Senate pronounces judgment, whether it votes on disqualification from future office, whether Pete Hegseth vacates the office, or any legal challenge to the conviction.

Impeachment without a Senate conviction will not qualify. An acquittal or dismissal of articles of impeachment will not, on its own, resolve this market.

If Pete Hegseth formally leaves the office of Secretary of War for any reason before a qualifying conviction, including by resignation or dismissal, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. An announcement of a future resignation does not count as leaving office.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Congress, including Senate roll call votes; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/hegseth-impeached-and-removed-by
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/hegseth-impeached-and-removed-byptptpt?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhegsethimpeach?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/hegseth-impeached-and-removed-by

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.