# House Majority Leader of the next Congress?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "House Majority Leader of the next Congress?". Katherine Clark leads at 92.4%. Next is Hakeem Jeffries at 2.8%. $7K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:25:00Z (2 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $7K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Katherine Clark | 92.4% | 95.5% |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 2.8% | 2.9% |
| Pete Aguilar | 1.7% | 1.8% |
| Tom Emmer | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| Joe Neguse | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Lisa McClain | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Steve Scalise | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Jim Jordan | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Ted Lieu | 0.3% | 0.3% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the first individual selected to be Majority Leader of the United States House of Representatives for the 120th United States Congress, which is scheduled to convene in January 2027 following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/house-majority-leader-of-the-next-congress
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/house-majority-leader-of-the-next-congress?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/house-majority-leader-of-the-next-congress

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.