# How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in November?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in November?". 4.75% or above leads at 68%. Next is 5% or above at 47%. $63K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T23:53:00Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $63K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4.75% or above | 68% | — | 68% | not on both |
| 5% or above | 47% | — | 47% | not on both |
| 5.42% | 45.5% | 45.5% | — | not on both |
| 5.45% | 39.5% | 39.5% | — | not on both |
| 5.49% | 37.5% | 37.5% | — | not on both |
| 5.1% or above | 35% | — | 35% | not on both |
| 5.15% or above | 30% | — | 30% | not on both |
| 5.53% | 28.5% | 28.5% | — | not on both |
| 5.25% or above | 26% | — | 26% | not on both |
| 5.57% | 26% | 26% | — | not on both |
| 5.61% | 18.5% | 18.5% | — | not on both |
| 5.69% | 18% | 18% | — | not on both |
| 5.5% or above | 11% | — | 11% | not on both |
| 5.65% | 11% | 11% | — | not on both |
| 5.73% | 9% | 9% | — | not on both |
| 5.75% or above | 7% | — | 7% | not on both |
| 6% or above | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [U.S. Department of the Treasury](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 3, 2026 and November 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of November 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of November 2026 by December 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/how-high-will-30-year-treasury-yield-go-in-november
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-30-year-treasury-yield-go-in-november?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnote10y?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/how-high-will-30-year-treasury-yield-go-in-november

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.