# How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?". 4.86% or above leads at 88%. Next is 4.88% or above at 74.5%. $2K has traded across 30 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-11T18:14:05Z (4 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 30, 2026
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 4.86% or above | 88% | 88% |
| 4.88% or above | 74.5% | 74.5% |
| 4.87% or above | 71% | 71% |
| 4.89% or above | 71% | 71% |
| 4.9% or above | 67.5% | 67.5% |
| 4.92% or above | 59.5% | 59.5% |
| 4.93% or above | 55.5% | 55.5% |
| 4.91% or above | 53% | 53% |
| 4.94% or above | 53% | 53% |
| 4.96% or above | 44.5% | 44.5% |
| 4.97% or above | 42.5% | 42.5% |
| 4.95% or above | 39% | 39% |
| 4.98% or above | 27% | 27% |
| 5% or above | 26.5% | 26.5% |
| 5.01% or above | 25.5% | 25.5% |
| 4.99% or above | 24% | 24% |
| 5.02% or above | 24% | 24% |
| 5.08% or above | 22% | 22% |
| 5.05% or above | 20.5% | 20.5% |
| 5.06% or above | 19% | 19% |
| 5.03% or above | 15% | 15% |
| 5.09% or above | 14% | 14% |
| 5.1% or above | 13% | 13% |
| 5.11% or above | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| 5.04% or above | 12% | 12% |
| 5.13% or above | 10.5% | 10.5% |
| 5.07% or above | 9% | 9% |
| 5.14% or above | 9% | 9% |
| 5.15% or above | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| 5.12% or above | 7% | 7% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [U.S. Department of the Treasury](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/how-high-will-the-5-year-us-treasury-yield-get-in-nov-2026
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx5yrdirhm?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/how-high-will-the-5-year-us-treasury-yield-get-in-nov-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.