# How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?". 4.9% or below leads at 96.5%. Next is 4.89% or below at 94.5%. $2K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:11:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 30, 2026
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 4.9% or below | 96.5% | 96.5% |
| 4.89% or below | 94.5% | 94.5% |
| 4.87% or below | 79% | 79% |
| 4.88% or below | 79% | 79% |
| 4.86% or below | 75% | 75% |
| 4.85% or below | 72% | 72% |
| 4.84% or below | 69% | 69% |
| 4.83% or below | 66% | 66% |
| 4.82% or below | 62% | 62% |
| 4.81% or below | 59% | 59% |
| 4.8% or below | 55% | 55% |
| 4.79% or below | 52% | 52% |
| 4.78% or below | 49% | 49% |
| 4.77% or below | 46% | 46% |
| 4.75% or below | 42% | 42% |
| 4.76% or below | 42% | 42% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [U.S. Department of the Treasury](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

## Settlement rules

Kalshi event status: open

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/how-low-will-the-10-year-us-treasury-yield-get-by-nov-30-2026
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlm?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/how-low-will-the-10-year-us-treasury-yield-get-by-nov-30-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.