# How low will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "How low will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?". 4.5% or below leads at 99.5%. Next is 4.46% or below at 99.5%. $3K has traded across 27 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T22:52:03Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 30, 2026
- Volume traded: $3K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4.5% or below | 99.5% | — | 99.5% | not on both |
| 4.46% or below | 99.5% | — | 99.5% | not on both |
| 4.47% or below | 99.5% | — | 99.5% | not on both |
| 4.48% or below | 99.5% | — | 99.5% | not on both |
| 4.49% or below | 99.5% | — | 99.5% | not on both |
| 4.51% or below | 99.5% | — | 99.5% | not on both |
| 4.52% or below | 99.5% | — | 99.5% | not on both |
| 4.53% or below | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| 4.54% or below | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| 4.55% or below | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| 4.56% or below | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| 4.57% or below | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| 4.43 | 70.9% | 68.5% | 78% | 9.5 pts |
| Below 4.35% | 67.5% | 67.5% | — | not on both |
| 4.44% or below | 55.5% | — | 55.5% | not on both |
| 4.42% or below | 52.5% | — | 52.5% | not on both |
| 4.41% or below | 52% | — | 52% | not on both |
| 4.45% or below | 52% | — | 52% | not on both |
| Below 4.29% | 48.5% | 48.5% | — | not on both |
| 4.39% or below | 48% | — | 48% | not on both |
| 4.38% or below | 47% | — | 47% | not on both |
| 4.4 | 45.8% | 46% | 45.5% | 0.5 pts |
| Below 4.22% | 45% | 45% | — | not on both |
| Below 4.26% | 44.5% | 44.5% | — | not on both |
| Below 4.32% | 42.5% | 42.5% | — | not on both |
| 4.37 | 15.3% | 33.5% | 6% | 27.5 pts |
| Below 4.18% | 6% | 6% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [U.S. Department of the Treasury](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

## Settlement rules

Kalshi event status: open

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/how-low-will-the-2-year-us-treasury-yield-get-in-nov-2026
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-2-year-treasury-yield-get-in-november?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx2yrdirlm?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/how-low-will-the-2-year-us-treasury-yield-get-in-nov-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.