# How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?". 5.26% or below leads at 68%. Next is 5.27% or below at 67%. $1K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T15:45:00Z (5 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 30, 2026
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 5.26% or below | 68% | 68% |
| 5.27% or below | 67% | 67% |
| 5.25% or below | 64% | 64% |
| 5.24% or below | 61% | 61% |
| 5.23% or below | 58% | 58% |
| 5.22% or below | 55% | 55% |
| 5.21% or below | 52% | 52% |
| 5.2% or below | 49% | 49% |
| 5.19% or below | 43% | 43% |
| 5.18% or below | 39% | 39% |
| 5.17% or below | 37% | 37% |
| 5.16% or below | 33% | 33% |
| 5.15% or below | 31% | 31% |
| 5.14% or below | 29% | 29% |
| 5.13% or below | 27% | 27% |
| 5.12% or below | 24% | 24% |
| 5.11% or below | 22% | 22% |
| 5.07% or below | 21% | 21% |
| 5.1% or below | 20% | 20% |
| 5.09% or below | 19% | 19% |
| 5.08% or below | 17% | 17% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [U.S. Department of the Treasury](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

## Settlement rules

Kalshi event status: open

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/how-low-will-the-30-year-us-treasury-yield-get-by-nov-30-2026
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx30yrdirlm?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/how-low-will-the-30-year-us-treasury-yield-get-by-nov-30-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.