# How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "How low will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Nov 2026?". 4.69% or below leads at 99.5%. Next is 4.68% or below at 85.5%. $2K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:20:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 30, 2026
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: economics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 4.69% or below | 99.5% | 99.5% |
| 4.68% or below | 85.5% | 85.5% |
| 4.67% or below | 81% | 81% |
| 4.66% or below | 78.5% | 78.5% |
| 4.65% or below | 75.5% | 75.5% |
| 4.64% or below | 73% | 73% |
| 4.63% or below | 70% | 70% |
| 4.62% or below | 67% | 67% |
| 4.61% or below | 64.5% | 64.5% |
| 4.6% or below | 62% | 62% |
| 4.59% or below | 59.5% | 59.5% |
| 4.58% or below | 57.5% | 57.5% |
| 4.57% or below | 55% | 55% |
| 4.56% or below | 52.5% | 52.5% |
| 4.54% or below | 48% | 48% |
| 4.53% or below | 46% | 46% |
| 4.52% or below | 43.5% | 43.5% |
| 4.51% or below | 41.5% | 41.5% |
| 4.5% or below | 39.5% | 39.5% |
| 4.49% or below | 38% | 38% |
| 4.55% or below | 35% | 35% |
| 4.48% or below | 21% | 21% |
| 4.47% or below | 19% | 19% |
| 4.46% or below | 17% | 17% |
| 4.45% or below | 16% | 16% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [U.S. Department of the Treasury](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

## Settlement rules

Kalshi event status: open

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/how-low-will-the-5-year-us-treasury-yield-get-in-nov-2026
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx5yrdirlm?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/how-low-will-the-5-year-us-treasury-yield-get-in-nov-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.