# How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "How many Democrats won't back Jeffries on the first ballot?". At least 1 leads at 90.5%. Next is At least 3 at 79%. $3K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-10T07:54:05Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Feb 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $3K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| At least 1 | 90.5% | 90.5% |
| At least 3 | 79% | 79% |
| At least 5 | 65% | 65% |
| At least 8 | 50% | 50% |
| At least 12 | 32% | 32% |
| At least 15 | 23% | 23% |
| At least 20 | 13% | 13% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives](https://clerk.house.gov/Votes).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/how-many-democrats-wont-back-jeffries-on-the-first-ballot
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjeffriesdefect?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/how-many-democrats-wont-back-jeffries-on-the-first-ballot

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.