# How many government shutdowns will there be before 2028?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "How many government shutdowns will there be before 2028?". At least 1 leads at 72%. Next is At least 2 at 38%. $1K has traded across 3 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-11T07:18:05Z (9 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2028
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| At least 1 | 72% | 72% |
| At least 2 | 38% | 38% |
| At least 3 | 15% | 15% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Office of Management and Budget](https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/), [United States Office of Personnel Management](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/how-many-government-shutdowns-will-there-be-before-2028
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnumshutdowns?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/how-many-government-shutdowns-will-there-be-before-2028

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.