# How many Knesset members will vote for the new Israeli government?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "How many Knesset members will vote for the new Israeli government?". No vote by February 28 leads at 39.5%. Next is 57–59 at 26%. $1K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:15:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Mar 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| No vote by February 28 | 39.5% | 39.5% |
| 57–59 | 26% | 26% |
| 54–56 | 18% | 18% |
| 60–62 | 17.5% | 17.5% |
| 69–71 | 17% | 17% |
| 66–68 | 15.5% | 15.5% |
| 51–53 | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| 72+ | 12% | 12% |
| 48–50 | 11% | 11% |
| 63–65 | 5.5% | 5.5% |
| 47 or fewer | 4% | 4% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

Following the Israeli legislative election of October 27, 2026, the 26th Knesset is set to hold a vote of confidence in a new government.

This market will resolve to the number of Members of the Knesset who vote “For” in the first vote of confidence in a new Israeli government held following this election.

The vote count refers to the first final vote of confidence in the full Knesset, not committee votes or procedural motions.

If no such vote is held by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by February 28”.

Only a vote of confidence held by the 26th Knesset, elected on October 27, 2026, will be considered. If the 26th Knesset is dissolved and a new election is called before such a vote is held, this market will resolve to “No vote by February 28”. Votes of confidence held after any subsequent Knesset election will not be considered.

The resolution sources will be official information from the Knesset and a consensus of credible reporting.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/how-many-knesset-members-will-vote-for-the-new-israeli-government
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-knesset-members-vote-for-new-israeli-government?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/how-many-knesset-members-will-vote-for-the-new-israeli-government

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.