# How many launches will SpaceX have in November?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "How many launches will SpaceX have in November?". Above 6 leads at 99%. Next is Above 7 at 88%. $940K has traded across 24 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:16:00Z (3 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $940K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: ai_tech

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 6 | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Above 7 | 88% | — | 88% | not on both |
| 5 | 79% | 79% | — | not on both |
| 140-159 | 74.3% | 74.3% | — | not on both |
| Above 8 | 52% | — | 52% | not on both |
| 120-139 | 29.2% | 29.2% | — | not on both |
| 5-6 | 19.5% | 19.5% | — | not on both |
| Above 9 | 15% | — | 15% | not on both |
| Above 10 | 6% | — | 6% | not on both |
| 180-199 | 5.2% | 5.2% | — | not on both |
| 200 or more | 3.9% | 3.9% | — | not on both |
| Above 11 | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Above 12 | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Above 13 | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Above 14 | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Above 15 | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Above 16 | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| 160-179 | 0.9% | 0.9% | — | not on both |
| 9-10 | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.4% | — | not on both |
| 7-8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |
| 11-12 | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |
| 13-14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| 15-16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [spacex.com](https://www.spacex.com/launches).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/launches).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-november
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-spacex-launches-in-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspacexcount?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-november

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.