# How many nominees will the Senate confirm in the lame duck?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "How many nominees will the Senate confirm in the lame duck?". At least 10 leads at 88.5%. Next is At least 25 at 85%. $11K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 4, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T15:52:00Z (5 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 4, 2027
- Volume traded: $11K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| At least 10 | 88.5% | 88.5% |
| At least 25 | 85% | 85% |
| At least 50 | 74% | 74% |
| At least 75 | 69% | 69% |
| At least 100 | 64% | 64% |
| At least 125 | 63% | 63% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [United States Senate](https://www.senate.gov/), [Library of Congress](https://www.congress.gov/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/how-many-nominees-will-the-senate-confirm-in-the-lame-duck
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlameduckconf?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/how-many-nominees-will-the-senate-confirm-in-the-lame-duck

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.