# How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 2?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of November 2?". 190-209 leads at 52%. Next is 170-189 at 23.3%. $7K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 9, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T15:48:00Z (8 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 9, 2026
- Volume traded: $7K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 190-209 | 52% | 62.5% |
| 170-189 | 23.3% | 28% |
| 210+ | 17.1% | 20.5% |
| 150 | 4.3% | 5.2% |
| 150-169 | 3.3% | 4% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [portwatch.imf.org](https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from November 2, 2026, through November 8, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/how-many-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-strait-week-of-november-2
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-strait-week-of-november-2?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/how-many-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-strait-week-of-november-2

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.