# How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of November 2?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of November 2?". 25-29 leads at 45.5%. Next is 20-24 at 39.6%. $3K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 9, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:18:00Z (3 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 9, 2026
- Volume traded: $3K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 25-29 | 45.5% | 45.5% |
| 20-24 | 39.6% | 39.6% |
| 35-39 | 37.5% | 37.5% |
| 30-34 | 34% | 34% |
| 20 | 28% | 28% |
| 40+ | 10.4% | 10.4% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from November 2, 2026, through November 8, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-november-2
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-november-2?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-november-2

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.